The Ashes in Australia is overdue a good 'un.
The home side has lost only twice in 40 years, both times with shadow teams after the Packer and rebel tour crises had ravaged their national set-up. There has probably been only one well-matched competition in those nine series: Australia's 2-1 win in 1982/3 which saw the destiny of the urn in play for all five Tests.
Otherwise it has been brutally one-sided. Lillee and Thompson's 1974/5 demolition, cruises for visiting captains Mike Brearley and Mike Gatting, and the Baggy Green monopoly of the 90s and noughties. The most emphatic and humiliating of these was the last, the unprecedented 5-0 whitewash four years ago.
This time promises to be different. Shane Warne is still mocking the Aussie hierarchy and Glenn McGrath once again predicting 5-0 but these legends are now just that. Despite Ricky Ponting's best efforts Australia have slipped back into mid-table mediocrity when it comes to the five-day game.
England are perhaps a shade ahead of them thanks mainly to Graeme Swann, the best bowler on either side, and a clear sense of purpose. Compared to last time there is no Andrew Flintoff and Kevin Pietersen has lost his swagger, but the tourists are none the worse for that. Organised and drilled by the pragmatic Andy Flower, theirs is a confident and settled XI with natural replacements in the wings. Where retaining the urn through a draw would once have been a triumph, only a series win can now be considered a real success.
Any slight advantage to England in talent and form must be counter-balanced by home advantage. Australia have brutalised not only the Poms for the last 20 years but all other comers. Without Warne, McGrath and co these last three home seasons they have still seen off India, New Zealand, Sri Lanka, the West Indies and Pakistan. Only South Africa two years ago have emerged with a series win since the Windies in 1992/3.
However, if Australia are anxious to avoid another 06/07-style mismatch then they may be over-compensating. They changed the structures of their selection panel just weeks before this series, sacking Merv Hughes and appointing Greg Chappell as their first full-time selector.
Chappell's record in management is modest and the home side signalled their disarray with an initial 17-man squad for the first Test at Brisbane starting Thursday. Whether you put this down to indecision or Cricket Australia's absurd marketing drive, it is not encouraging for the home side.
Michael Clarke is fit to play after recovering enough from his long-standing back problem. Given the rumours on the vice-captain's dressing room popularity it may be that a team-mate stabbed him in the back, though that is unconfirmed at time of publication.
While Mike Hussey and Marcus North have international declines to arrest, with so many doubts over fitness and form, Islamabad-born Usman Khawaja will surely feature in the series at some point.
In any case a debut at Brisbane is expected. Xavier Doherty takes pole position to claim the spinning spot after Nathan Hauritz was dropped. Warne has been among those to criticise the treatment of the limited but industrious Hauritz while one England player responded to the announcement by admitting he had never heard of the new Tasmanian: 'How rubbish is he?'
The answer to that is: 84 first-class wickets at 48.26. If Australia really are picking a left-armer who makes Ashley Giles look like Bishan Bedi because of Pietersen's supposed phobia then they are even more desperate than they look.
For Flower and England, such indecision is a thing of the past. The coach knows his best XI and is sticking with it, welcoming back Ian Bell for Eoin Morgan after injury kept the Warwickshire man out of the Pakistan series at home.
There is no doubt that stability is invaluable and the preparation this month - early arrival, serious tour matches - makes a mockery of efforts last time around. But England should not be fooled into thinking they are world-beaters.
At the top of the order Andrew Strauss and Alastair Cook is a weak partnership, two players too similar and in Cook's case indifferent when it matters. Consequently the top six at large does not bat well as a unit and big totals, essential in Australia, have not been registered often enough elsewhere. Two of the three front-line bowlers, Stuart Broad and Steven Finn, have limited experience Down Under while their leader James Anderson must wish he could forget his last trip.
These weaknesses can be overcome but the point is that neither side boasts elite class. Success will come as much from dealing with shortcomings and finding a way to finish the job as it will from blazing brilliance. The interest arises from the rivalry rather than the pedigree.
After 20 years of unchallenged dominance at home, it is a prospect that will excite Australians as much as the English.
Key Men:
Australia: Shane Watson is a strange case, a 'successful' opening batsman who doesn't make many centuries. But his quick-scoring might unsettle England's bowlers and, as the closest thing to a genuine all-rounder on either side, he could prove decisive if the series is very close.
England: James Anderson is not widely fancied for this series but Brisbane is a decent place for him to start. The tourists' biggest question mark is their seam attack; if the Lancastrian leads with distinction the series is theirs for the taking.
Last Five Head-To-Head Test Results
2009: 5th Test England won by 197 runs at The Oval, London
2009: 4th Test Australia won by an innings and 80 runs at Headingley, Leeds
2009: 3rd Test Match drawn at Edgbaston, Birmingham
2009: 2nd Test England won by 115 runs at Lord's, London
2009: 1st Test Match drawn at Swalec Stadium, Cardiff
Prediction
Australia's record in Brisbane is even stronger than other home grounds. But so it was at Lord's in 2009 and the selection of Doherty only reinforces the view that the home side are not ready. They may well come back into it but England are in greater need of a winning start and are well prepared to get it.
Probable Teams
Australia: Simon Katich, Shane Watson, Ricky Ponting, Michael Clarke, Mike Hussey, Marcus North, Brad Haddin, Mitchell Johnson, Ben Hilfenhaus, Peter Siddle, Xavier Doherty.
England: Andrew Strauss, Alastair Cook, Jonathan Trott, Kevin Pietersen, Paul Collingwood, Ian Bell, Matt Prior, Graeme Swann, Stuart Broad, James Anderson, Steven Finn.
Dates: 25-29 November
Morning session: 10.00-12.00 local time (00.00-02.00 GMT)
Afternoon session: 12.40-14.40 local time (02.40-04.40 GMT)
Evening session: 15.00-17.00 local time (05.00-07.00 GMT).
The home side has lost only twice in 40 years, both times with shadow teams after the Packer and rebel tour crises had ravaged their national set-up. There has probably been only one well-matched competition in those nine series: Australia's 2-1 win in 1982/3 which saw the destiny of the urn in play for all five Tests.
Otherwise it has been brutally one-sided. Lillee and Thompson's 1974/5 demolition, cruises for visiting captains Mike Brearley and Mike Gatting, and the Baggy Green monopoly of the 90s and noughties. The most emphatic and humiliating of these was the last, the unprecedented 5-0 whitewash four years ago.
This time promises to be different. Shane Warne is still mocking the Aussie hierarchy and Glenn McGrath once again predicting 5-0 but these legends are now just that. Despite Ricky Ponting's best efforts Australia have slipped back into mid-table mediocrity when it comes to the five-day game.
England are perhaps a shade ahead of them thanks mainly to Graeme Swann, the best bowler on either side, and a clear sense of purpose. Compared to last time there is no Andrew Flintoff and Kevin Pietersen has lost his swagger, but the tourists are none the worse for that. Organised and drilled by the pragmatic Andy Flower, theirs is a confident and settled XI with natural replacements in the wings. Where retaining the urn through a draw would once have been a triumph, only a series win can now be considered a real success.
Any slight advantage to England in talent and form must be counter-balanced by home advantage. Australia have brutalised not only the Poms for the last 20 years but all other comers. Without Warne, McGrath and co these last three home seasons they have still seen off India, New Zealand, Sri Lanka, the West Indies and Pakistan. Only South Africa two years ago have emerged with a series win since the Windies in 1992/3.
However, if Australia are anxious to avoid another 06/07-style mismatch then they may be over-compensating. They changed the structures of their selection panel just weeks before this series, sacking Merv Hughes and appointing Greg Chappell as their first full-time selector.
Chappell's record in management is modest and the home side signalled their disarray with an initial 17-man squad for the first Test at Brisbane starting Thursday. Whether you put this down to indecision or Cricket Australia's absurd marketing drive, it is not encouraging for the home side.
Michael Clarke is fit to play after recovering enough from his long-standing back problem. Given the rumours on the vice-captain's dressing room popularity it may be that a team-mate stabbed him in the back, though that is unconfirmed at time of publication.
While Mike Hussey and Marcus North have international declines to arrest, with so many doubts over fitness and form, Islamabad-born Usman Khawaja will surely feature in the series at some point.
In any case a debut at Brisbane is expected. Xavier Doherty takes pole position to claim the spinning spot after Nathan Hauritz was dropped. Warne has been among those to criticise the treatment of the limited but industrious Hauritz while one England player responded to the announcement by admitting he had never heard of the new Tasmanian: 'How rubbish is he?'
The answer to that is: 84 first-class wickets at 48.26. If Australia really are picking a left-armer who makes Ashley Giles look like Bishan Bedi because of Pietersen's supposed phobia then they are even more desperate than they look.
For Flower and England, such indecision is a thing of the past. The coach knows his best XI and is sticking with it, welcoming back Ian Bell for Eoin Morgan after injury kept the Warwickshire man out of the Pakistan series at home.
There is no doubt that stability is invaluable and the preparation this month - early arrival, serious tour matches - makes a mockery of efforts last time around. But England should not be fooled into thinking they are world-beaters.
At the top of the order Andrew Strauss and Alastair Cook is a weak partnership, two players too similar and in Cook's case indifferent when it matters. Consequently the top six at large does not bat well as a unit and big totals, essential in Australia, have not been registered often enough elsewhere. Two of the three front-line bowlers, Stuart Broad and Steven Finn, have limited experience Down Under while their leader James Anderson must wish he could forget his last trip.
These weaknesses can be overcome but the point is that neither side boasts elite class. Success will come as much from dealing with shortcomings and finding a way to finish the job as it will from blazing brilliance. The interest arises from the rivalry rather than the pedigree.
After 20 years of unchallenged dominance at home, it is a prospect that will excite Australians as much as the English.
Key Men:
Australia: Shane Watson is a strange case, a 'successful' opening batsman who doesn't make many centuries. But his quick-scoring might unsettle England's bowlers and, as the closest thing to a genuine all-rounder on either side, he could prove decisive if the series is very close.
England: James Anderson is not widely fancied for this series but Brisbane is a decent place for him to start. The tourists' biggest question mark is their seam attack; if the Lancastrian leads with distinction the series is theirs for the taking.
Last Five Head-To-Head Test Results
2009: 5th Test England won by 197 runs at The Oval, London
2009: 4th Test Australia won by an innings and 80 runs at Headingley, Leeds
2009: 3rd Test Match drawn at Edgbaston, Birmingham
2009: 2nd Test England won by 115 runs at Lord's, London
2009: 1st Test Match drawn at Swalec Stadium, Cardiff
Prediction
Australia's record in Brisbane is even stronger than other home grounds. But so it was at Lord's in 2009 and the selection of Doherty only reinforces the view that the home side are not ready. They may well come back into it but England are in greater need of a winning start and are well prepared to get it.
Probable Teams
Australia: Simon Katich, Shane Watson, Ricky Ponting, Michael Clarke, Mike Hussey, Marcus North, Brad Haddin, Mitchell Johnson, Ben Hilfenhaus, Peter Siddle, Xavier Doherty.
England: Andrew Strauss, Alastair Cook, Jonathan Trott, Kevin Pietersen, Paul Collingwood, Ian Bell, Matt Prior, Graeme Swann, Stuart Broad, James Anderson, Steven Finn.
Dates: 25-29 November
Morning session: 10.00-12.00 local time (00.00-02.00 GMT)
Afternoon session: 12.40-14.40 local time (02.40-04.40 GMT)
Evening session: 15.00-17.00 local time (05.00-07.00 GMT).
